Issued at 8:00 AM, 04 October 2021
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today
TROPICAL DEPRESSION “LANNIE” IS NOW OVER THE SURIGAO STRAIT AND ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LEYTE.
Location of Center (7:00 AM)
The center of Tropical Depression “LANNIE” was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Liloan, Southern Leyte (10.1°N, 125.3°E)
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa Present Movement West northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to200 km from the center
The southern portion of Masbate (Pio V. Corpuz, Cataingan, Palanas, Dimasalang, Uson, Mobo, Milagros, Mandaon, Esperanza, Placer, Cawayan, Balud), the southern portion of Romblon (Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang, Santa Maria, Odiongan, Alcantara, Ferrol, Looc, Santa Fe, San Jose), the southern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Roxas, Mansalay, Bulalacao, Bongabong), the southern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Calintaan, Rizal, San Jose, Magsaysay), and the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli) including Calamian and Cuyo
Islands. Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, the northern and central portions of Negros Oriental (Bais City, Mabinay, City of Bayawan, Basay, City of Tanjay, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, City of Guihulngan, Vallehermoso, Canlaon City), Cebu, and Bohol
Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, the northern portion of Agusan del Norte (Magallanes, Remedios T. Romualdez, City of Cabadbaran, Tubay, Santiago, Jabonga, Kitcharao, Butuan City), the northern portion of Agusan del Sur (Sibagat, City of Bayugan, Prosperidad), and the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (San Miguel, Marihatag, San Agustin, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, City of Tandag, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal, Lianga)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
• Today through tomorrow morning, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains are likely over Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, CALABARZON, and Caraga Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are also possible over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Bataan, and the rest of Mindanao.
• Under these conditions, scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps
• Strong winds (i.e., strong breeze to near gale conditions) with occasional gusts will be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 is in effect during the passage of the tropical depression. This may generally cause up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
• The enhanced easterly flow north of the tropical depression may also bring occasionally gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale in strength over Extreme Northern Luzon and the coastal and upland/mountainous areas of the eastern section of Luzon in the next 24 hours.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, “LANNIE” will bring moderate to rough seas over the coastal waters of the country, especially in areas where TCWS #1 is in effect. These conditions are risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Landfall areas in the past 3 hours: Bucas Grande Island, Socorro, Surigao del Norte (4:30 AM); Cagdianao, Dinagat Islands (5:00 AM).
• On the forecast track, the tropical depression will move generally west northwestward over the Visayas archipelago until tonight or tomorrow early morning, when it is expected to emerge over the Sulu Sea and cross the Cuyo archipelago. Afterwards, the depression may make another landfall in the vicinity of northern Palawan or Calamian Islands tomorrow morning before emerging over the West Philippine Sea a couple of hours later. Throughout this entire period, “LANNIE” is forecast to remain within tropical depression category, with a possibility of slight intensification once over the Sulu Sea or West Philippine Sea.
• By late Tuesday through early Thursday, “LANNIE” is forecast to move generally northwestward over the West Philippine Sea. Improvement in environmental conditions will allow the depression to intensify. It may likely be upgraded into a tropical storm by Wednesday early morning.
• “LANNIE” is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Thursday morning. Outside the PAR, the cyclone is forecast to turn more north northwestward while heading towards southern mainland China. It will continue intensifying during this period and may reach severe tropical storm category by Saturday morning.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Keep safe Cavithinkños